China threatens to go to war if Taiwan proclaims independence

Beijing's warning is very strong, if Taiwan proclaims its independence, it will be war.

Beijing has clearly toughened its tone with regard to Taiwan. China indeed considers the dissident archipelago, born of the civil war, as one of its provinces and in no way intends to part with it, despite the local independence maneuvers organized with the support of the United States.

The diplomatic escalation is gradually intensifying. The latest Chinese incursions into the Taiwan Strait were already a solemn warning addressed to the players involved, a Chinese government spokesperson said on Wednesday. A dozen fighters and bombers had indeed entered on Saturday then Sunday in the Taiwan air defense identification zone (about 200-250 km from the Taiwanese coast). The United States had ensured in the process that their support for Taipei remained solid as a rock and urged Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic and economic pressures on the island.

This Thursday, the tone rises a notch and China now threatens to go to war if Taiwan proclaims its independence: The military activities carried out by the Chinese People's Liberation Army in the Taiwan Strait are necessary to face up to the current situation and to safeguard national sovereignty and security, said Wu Qian, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Defense. This is a solemn response to outside interference and provocations by forces favorable to 'Taiwan independence. Those who play with fire will burn themselves and Taiwan independence' means the war.

Taiwan has 23 million inhabitants. The island has been ruled since 1945 by a regime (the Republic of China) which took refuge there after the Communists victory in mainland China in 1949 at the end of the Chinese civil war. The Beijing based People's Republic of China threatens to use force in the event of a formal proclamation of independence on the island.

Washington had decided in 1979 to release Taipei and recognize the communist regime as the sole representative of China. But the United States has maintained an ambiguous relationship with Taiwan ever since. They remain his most powerful ally and continue to provide him with weapons. Breaking with the status quo, the Trump administration increased official contacts with the island during his tenure. A trend that could continue under Joe Biden: the Taiwanese representative in the United States was invited to the inauguration of the new American president, a first since 1979.

Beijing-Taipei relations have been strained since the arrival to power in 2016 of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, re-elected in 2020, whose party has traditionally campaigned for the island's formal independence. Despite the tensions, the economies of mainland China and Taiwan remain tightly linked and their citizens can move freely in the two territories by obtaining a laissez-passer.